Assessing Conservation Potential of Streams for Spikedace and Loach Minnow Using Species Distribution Modeling

Abstract Identifying, evaluating, and prioritizing freshwater systems for conservation is a persistent challenge managers tasked with recovery of native fishes. We used historical records from the Gila River basin, national hydrography data set, Random Forest modeling to predict probability Spikedace Meda fulgida Loach Minnow Rhinichthys cobitis occurrence throughout their range in basin. Models both species performed moderately well, relatively high predicted at streams records. Predicted was also several without focal species, suggesting that there are unoccupied reaches basin similar environmental conditions historically occupied species. Unoccupied highest may have greater chance supporting translocated populations Our results can be as first step locating most likely support within respective ranges. approach applicable other concern available historic need population restoration.